On Monday, Canada announced that it is capping the number of international students for two years, with the cap for 2024 at 360,000 students, a decrease of 35% from 2023.

In addition, post-graduate work permits will no longer be available for students in schools under a private-public partnership model and work permits will only be offered to spouses of students enrolled in masters, doctoral and professional programs.

The full news release is available at “Canada to stabilize growth and decrease number of new international student permits issued to approximately 360,000 for 2024 – Canada.ca”.

In the media, the Immigration Minister, Marc Miller, has said, “the main reason for the cap is to protect students who attend colleges, which are often private-public partnerships, that provide inadequate services at high costs, but also to ease pressure on housing and services. Some private institutions have taken advantage of international students by operating under-resourced campuses, lacking supports for students and charging high tuition fees, all the while significantly increasing their intake of international students.” [Source: Canada to cap international student permits amid housing crunch | Reuters]

OUR ANALYSIS

The cap represents a limit on the number of study permits that will be issued to students who want to come to Canada in the future, not the total number of international students in Canada. There are already an estimated 900,000 international students in Canada that can continue their studies.

While the cap represents a material cut in comparison to 2023, it is still substantially higher than the 256,000 study permits issued in 2020. Over the past three years, the number of permits issued annually has ballooned – this has been fuelled by both growth at universities and also due to rapid growth of colleges operating under private-public partnerships. It is really the latter scenario that Canada is seeking to control.

In fact, the University of Toronto welcomed the announcement and said it would work with all levels of government on the allocation of study permits. The changes are “focused on addressing abuses in the system by particular actors and are not intended to adversely impact universities such as ours,” the university said in a statement. [Source: Canada to cap international student permits amid housing crunch | Reuters]

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT US?

• Our portfolio consists of 12 properties in six tier-one university markets across Canada. In particular, our properties are located in Halifax (Dalhousie), Ottawa (uOttawa), Oshawa (Ontario Tech), Hamilton (McMaster), Waterloo (Laurier and Waterloo) and Edmonton (University of Alberta). We do not target students attending colleges and have no exposure to colleges operating under private-public partnerships.
• Based on our tenant survey results, our current tenant base consists of 73.5% domestic students and 26.5% international students. Since we do not target first-year students (who typically live in on-campus residences), our average exposure is less than 9% per year, assuming an equal split between second, third and fourth-year students.
• The cap represents a 35% cut, which we expect will impact colleges more than universities. However, assuming that universities are equally impacted, we could potentially see our annual intake reduce from ~9% to ~6%. At most of our properties, we have healthy waiting lists of students seeking live in our buildings. We are very confident that we will be able manage the challenge of filling up to 3% of our beds that were previously occupied by international students.
• As of January 18, 2024, we are 57% pre-leased for the September 2024/25 school year, which is in line with this time last year. We still have over seven months before the start of the school year. We are actively increasing our marketing efforts towards targeting domestic students. In particular, we are actively engaged in promoting a “student life” experience and working with universities to sponsor and support athletics and campus life.

 

In summary, we remain confident that the high quality of our portfolio will continue to attract university students. The changes announced by the Canadian government will have an immaterial impact on our portfolio and we will continue to build and deliver Canada’s leading student housing platform.